O que vem a seguir para a economia circular em 2026? (4)

[00:00:00.000] - Lou Waldegrave Welcome to the Circular Economy Show. Today, I'm going to be joined by Joss Blériot, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation's Executive Lead for Policy. We're going to cut through the noise of the global headlines and look at what's actually moving on the ground. In this episode, you can expect to hear why we've seen a 36% surge in national circular economy strategies. We're looking ahead to China's 15th 5-year plan, and we'll hear how Brazil is integrating circularity into its industrial DNA.

[00:00:36.580] - Lou Waldegrave Well, thank you so much for joining me today, Joss. It's an absolute honour, actually, because, correct me if I'm wrong, but you were right at the embryonic stages of the Foundation as we know it. I believe it was you, Ellen, and two or three others, literally sitting around a kitchen table and forming what we now know as the Circular Economy in our language.

[00:01:00.000] - Joss Blériot Well, I guess it didn't happen in one sitting, but yes, you're right. There was a kitchen table involved a lot, especially in the early days when Ellen definitely wanted to put her name to the service of something bigger than her sailing career. Having discovered the notion of finite… It's all in the TED talk, you can revisit that anyway. But yes, basically, it's very much an adventure that we didn't think would take us that far. I guess we could say we were surprised by how big it got for sure.

[00:01:36.240] - Lou Waldegrave It's got to be nearly 16 years later, right? It's nearly 16 years ago that all this was formulated.

[00:01:43.520] - Joss Blériot Well, the Foundation launched in September 2010, so it's nearly 16. We just had our 15th anniversary.

[00:01:51.640] - Lou Waldegrave Yeah. You have always taken on the role of our ambassador across the EU and the rest of the world, and you head our policy. I just want to make a quick disclaimer to anyone listening or watching today. We're not going to go too technical here. We're not going to go granular. We just want, or I just want, to share your unique take on global policy landscape as it is now, because over all those years, you must have seen a lot of changes, especially with the geopolitical shifts in the last couple of years. We're currently at the Foundation focusing on implementation. That's a big move. What's the scope? I know it's only February 2026, but are you seeing that implementation accelerating?

[00:02:40.460] - Joss Blériot Well, I think what we're seeing for sure is an explosion of national roadmaps, strategies and action plans. If you look at the work that's been done by UNIDO and Chatham House, the UN Industrial Development Organisation, and Chatham House doing a stock take on circular economy roadmaps nationally.

[00:03:00.760] - Joss Blériot The previous version dated back to 2024. At the time, there were only 75 national plans. They just released one, an update, maybe it's a couple of weeks ago, maybe a month ago, I can't remember. But that figure is now 101, which means we're looking at 34, 35% increase since 2024, which is massive. It doesn't necessarily answer your question when it comes to implementation, but the fact is that the frameworks and the regulations in place have just exploded. It was perhaps a long phase of maturity to get the agreement on circular economy being a priority. Now the implementation work is going to start in earnest. It's difficult to say, are we seeing a lot in that field?

[00:03:53.440] - Lou Waldegrave Wow. Where are we seeing most of this growth?

[00:03:56.800] - Joss Blériot That latest batch, that latest phase of development, really has focused on the global south.

[00:04:02.400] - Lou Waldegrave Of course, the circular economy really has taken off in Latin America, where we, as the Foundation, have a very strong presence.

[00:04:09.840] - Joss Blériot Yeah, we do. In 2021, the Latin American and Caribbean Circular Economy Coalition was formed. We were a strategic partner from day one and part of the group that formed it as well. Today, it's 18–19 governments. I'm going to get slapped by the team for not knowing the exact number here, but it's a lot to remember. Of course, in Brazil, specifically, the National Circular Economy Strategy was adopted in 2024. We sit on the National Circular Economy Forum, so really driving that agenda and moving to implementation phase as well, looking at business policy engagement going forward.

[00:04:48.220] - Lou Waldegrave Is this the case… Sorry, I'm going to bring up China as well, traditionally the home of circular economy policy, where we also have officers in a very strong standing. Is it the same case across China?

[00:05:01.420] - Joss Blériot China has been the first, really, to put circular economy on the policymaker's agenda. It was first and foremost from a resource, security of supply agenda, which interestingly is actually coming back with all the geopolitical tensions that we're seeing. The focus is really more on innovation, competitiveness, resilience. That's where the framing of the circular economy is. China, for sure, is going to release a 15th 5-year plan in March or April.

[00:05:36.600] - Joss Blériot There's a lot of focus on circular economy. The previous plan had the biggest component on circular economy to date, so we can expect quite a lot on that as well through the lens of resource security, strategic autonomy, but also industrial upgrading, and cost reductions, interestingly. China is really focusing on innovation and tech as a driver for growth, but they also want to make sure that the soundness of the material base is kept, and the circular economy is a really strong way for them to do that.

[00:06:09.860] - Lou Waldegrave Yeah, I was going to say, when it comes to… It's great that all these plans have come out, but when it comes to actually implementing the circular economy in these emerging economies, where do you think momentum is going to get, if at all, stuck?

[00:06:31.080] - Joss Blériot It's a difficult one to answer. I think if I take a global outlook, one of the key issues is going to be about convergence and harmonisation. If we really want to go to scale and go global, there's a level of harmonisation that needs to be made when it comes to what gets agreed that goes on the market, what gets phased out, what fiscal incentives as well are given to specific activities when it comes to value retention, keeping those materials in use, keeping the components in play. Internationally, it's going to be really interesting because at the same time you have a focus on resilience, which can be a bit of a protectionist agenda, secure the supply base.

[00:07:13.000] - Joss Blériot It is also within the context of global trade flows. If we don't manage to harmonise or at least get common definitions on what is the second materials as opposed to what is waste, and how can these cross-border exchanges of materials take place, that's going to be a key crunch point.

[00:07:31.440] - Lou Waldegrave There's a long tradition of the circular economy in the EU. What are they starting to get going at the moment? Because I hear there's a lot of action going on over there.

[00:07:41.520] - Joss Blériot Yeah, it's true. There was a big development when it comes to the European Circular Economy Act. If you look back, they started, and we engaged very early on in the process. 2012, European Resource Efficiency Platform led to the creation of various plans and action plans and packages.

[00:08:02.960] - Joss Blériot We're now going into… Actually, the implementation phase was called by the EU to a certain extent when last year or a couple of years ago, they started talking about the end of the legislation title wave and the beginning of the implementation.

[00:08:19.660] - Joss Blériot The commission is working on the Circular Economy Act, which is supposed to be released at the end of this year. The big focus here really is creating a single market for secondary raw materials, keep that value in scope for the union and the block. There's also a strong focus on design and eco design, sustainable product regulation, all of the stuff that gets put on the market. It really is about giving coherence to all the bits and pieces of circular economy policies that have been developed over the years and bringing that under one roof.

[00:08:56.700] - Lou Waldegrave Okay. How about here in the UK? Are we keeping up?

[00:09:00.400] - Joss Blériot Yeah, it's an interesting one as well because there was just a couple of weeks ago a meeting between the European Commissioner and the British Minister in charge of circular economy.

[00:09:11.100] - Joss Blériot They were very convergent when it comes to circular economy ambitions. The same sectors are in scope. There's a strong focus on textiles. There's a strong focus on extended producer responsibility mechanisms as well. It seems we don't have the details of exactly what the UK is going to come out with, but the Task Force has been working on a growth plan, and the official party line is that it's going to be released soon, so watch this space.

[00:09:40.440] - Lou Waldegrave We've talked a lot about making the economics work. What is the link between the circular economy and climate change, and of course, biodiversity loss?

[00:09:51.460] - Joss Blériot We've been working on those topics to mainly establish the actual contribution that circular economy can make to these big crucial topics. We know since the paper that we published completing the picture, we know that the material side of the economy has a massive role to play in the emissions as well. If we focus on energy transition alone, we won't get there. We need to look at the processes, the materials, et cetera.

[00:10:18.360] - Joss Blériot In the grand scheme of things, that has been rising on the agenda of the policymakers. We've seen circular economy mentioned in the UAE COP 28 conclusions. What we're trying to do now is to make sure that A, these emissions from material extraction, processing, et cetera, can be accounted for so that they can be linked to the country's ambitions when it comes to reducing their climate impact.

[00:10:46.530] - Joss Blériot Instead of focusing on emissions from waste only, circular economy is understood as a all-encompassing strategy to reduce those emissions and the material footprint. That's something that we're pushing. It's institutionally more and more recognised. The various UN bodies looking at this are trying to influence the countries when it comes to their emission plans and the role that circular economy can play.

[00:11:14.760] - Joss Blériot On biodiversity and nature at large, I think it's probably earlier in the conversation, but getting the understanding as well that in a lot of cases, we've seen that, and we have a paper actually coming out very soon on that, led by our team in Latin America. Countries that have both a circular economy and a bioeconomy strategy keep these two things as very disjointed, which means that we have circular economy focusing on technical materials and waste, and on the other side, bioeconomy, bio-based feedstocks still being exploited in a linear fashion. We're trying to get that logic to join up and say, "Let's not overlook the massive importance of circularising bio-based feedstock, regeneration, et cetera."

[00:12:03.420] - Lou Waldegrave Since you've mentioned ecological transformation, is it still the case that the circular economy remains mostly owned by ministries of the Environment?

[00:12:14.580] - Joss Blériot Overwhelmingly, yes, that's true. The paper that I mentioned earlier, the stock take that was done by UNIDO and Chatham House, points to the fact that currently about 20% of those national efforts are co-owned by various ministries. But yes, 80% is still very much in the camp of the ministries of the Environment, even though the framing around circular economy is changing from an environmental topic to something which is more in the camp of resilience, competitiveness, and innovation. Gravitating more and more towards key industrial strategies.

[00:12:52.380] - Lou Waldegrave If there was one final piece of advice you could give to policymakers and businesses who want to keep up and not miss out, what would it be?

[00:13:04.160] - Joss Blériot Well, there's probably not one, sadly. I can't answer that question like that.

[00:13:08.240] - Lou Waldegrave Go for it.

[00:13:08.800] - Joss Blériot One thing that is clear is that we really need to look at the underlying economic conditions, because at the moment, the system really does favour extraction, consumption, and waste. It's still very linear in its economic way of dealing with the stuff, but also the business model. That idea that we need to make the economics work for circularity is really key. It was actually one of the big topics raised by all the businesses around the table in July, the European Commission, when the Clean Industrial Deal and circularity were put on the table.

[00:13:45.890] - Joss Blériot To give you a really concrete and simple example, businesses that deal with plastic say, "It's economically not viable for us to go into more recycled materials because they are simply more expensive than the virgin stuff." Even something as simple as that needs to be actually dealt with from an economic perspective. That's true for all sectors, of course, very much in scope for plastics and textiles. Making the economics work, I really would go back to that question of harmonisation or convergence when it comes to…

[00:14:18.480] - Joss Blériot Let's look at the biggest instruments. Extended Producer Responsibility is one of the big instruments that seem to generate consensus. Governments start there. It's about what you put on the market and what conditions you put in place in order to deal with the end of life. If there was international alignment on these mechanisms, it would be very helpful. Of course, design standards, product standards, what goes on the market, what's accepted, and how do we create strong secondary raw material markets to really push circular economy to the mainstream.

[00:14:55.600] - Lou Waldegrave Yeah, and I guess it's about levelling that playing field, isn't it? We can harmonise standards across all different geographies, so everyone has a fair chance.

[00:15:05.760] - Joss Blériot Of course, that would be ideal. But we know multilateral space is a bit challenged at the moment. These conversations are not necessarily super easy to have, but there are mechanisms, there's consensus-ish at the G20 level that circular economy is an important mechanism that we need to push, bearing in mind the G20 economies deliver about 85% global GDP, so that's significant.

[00:15:32.180] - Joss Blériot There are forums in which those questions can be addressed. It's about really making the economic case because I think that the breaking point and the make-or-break question will be about, "We understand circular economy is a priority. Governments understand it, businesses understand it." It will be about making the case economically, getting the demonstrators and getting basically beyond glorified pilot projects, can it scale? That needs a really strong view on the economic benefits.

[00:16:08.140] - Lou Waldegrave We're getting to the point, aren't we, where businesses are going to have to go to policymakers and tell them what they need to make things work.

[00:16:17.300] - Joss Blériot I'd probably be a bit more nuanced than that. I would say co-creation processes are really important because we don't want to end up in the traditional lobbying, lowest common denominators, businesses pushing for their interests and governments trying to curb the excesses and all of that. We've seen that happen.

[00:16:38.180] - Joss Blériot I think there's a dynamic which is much more proactive and much more consensus-driven on, "We agree on the direction of travel of circular economy for next wave of development. How do we make it happen?" It's a dialogue. It's a co-creation process. That's why we also invest massively in the business policy engagement to make sure that the right enabling conditions are in place.

[00:17:04.280] - Lou Waldegrave Joss, thank you so much for your time today. It's been great, and you've given us a great landscape picture.

[00:17:11.820] - Joss Blériot Well, we can certainly come back and do more detailed stuff going forward if you'd still have me.

[00:17:17.880] - Lou Waldegrave I will. I will, definitely. Thanks so much for your time.

[00:17:21.770] - Joss Blériot Thank you.

[00:17:22.920] - Lou Waldegrave We're most definitely seeing a historic shift where circular economy policy is moving out of purely environmental ministries and into the hands of economic planning authorities and ministries of industry. We've also heard how the focus for 2026 is closing that implementation gap. As Joss noted, the tools are there, from ECO Design Guidelines to EPR schemes. The next step is just ensuring these policies talk to each other across borders.

[00:17:53.280] - Lou Waldegrave Thanks for joining us today. If you enjoyed this episode, please give us a like or a comment, and remember to share with your colleagues and friends. Don't forget to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Just before I say we'll see you next time, Joss has a brand-new LinkedIn newsletter coming out, so keep your eyes peeled for Policy Pulse. We'll see you next time.